I find it strange that Umineko's one of the few series I actually enjoy spoiling myself over. Or maybe it's because I'm too impatient to wait two-four months for a translation to appear.

edit: so from the looks of things...

EP3 > EP5 >= parts of EP4 > EP2 > parts of EP4 > EP1

I like how this series takes the stupidest (or otherwise weirdest) plot devices ever and makes them exciting.

edit2:

resurrectedreplayer >= dreamenddischarger > worldenddominator >= miragecoordinator > goldenslaughterer

edit3:

Hmm. Some really long and drawn out/extended thoughts.

UMINEKO EP1-5 SPOILERS









- with the EP4 revelation that Kinzo is dead, we find out in EP5 that Krauss, Natsuhi, Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo, and later Shannon and Kanon are all aware that Kinzo is dead prior to the start of the game in each EP.
- considering that the true culprit has possession of Kinzo's ring sometime before midnight of the first day in each game, I would presume that one of the above is responsible for the passing of the ring to the culprit, or otherwise is the culprit.

So, to go down the list...

- I automatically rule Natsuhi out because of the revelation of her delusional state in EP5. She doesn't strike me as the type of person who would do this.
- Krauss, on the other hand... he's desperate. All of the Ushiromiya's assets are mortgaged because of his horrible business decisions, and he sees the only way out through obtaining the family's hidden gold stash. I think under the right circumstance he'd be easily coerced at the least.
- Nanjo has the distinction of being the only character (apart from Battler, but I will get to that later) to have survived the first twilight in every Episode. I don't think this is a coincidence at all; Nanjo is needed to confirm everyone's deaths because he is the only doctor on the island, and so he could easily pass off a fake autopsy if needed.
- Kanon has the distinction of being the only character whose corpse Battler has never actually witnessed for himself. Nanjo confirms his death in EP1+3 (which means that if I choose Kanon as my culprit then Nanjo is automatically the accomplice), and in EP2+4 his corpse is missing. Beatrice proclaims his death in red in EP2+4, but I believe that can be interpreted as either Kanon abandoning his name or dying sometime after the time he is shown to have died. But I will come back to this later.
- Kumasawa (might be able to say this about Nanjo, and definitely Genji) has the distinction of having been on the island long enough to know about the secrets of Kuwadorian and Beatrice's human self.
- Shannon... might be an unwilling accomplice. Not sure. Unless the Kanon=Shannon theory turns out to be true, but then the thought of George proposing to Kanon is just... uhhh...

In all honesty, the only person here who strikes me as potential true culprit status is Kanon. Beatrice's red text rules out Nanjo, Kumasawa, and Genji as murderers and relegates them to potential accomplice status. Krauss doesn't strike me as the true culprit type because he's too pathetic to pull something like this off (see EP5). Shannon doesn't strike me as the type period.

However, judging by the end of EP4, the true culprit has some relationship with Battler that extends at least over 6 years. There haven't been any clues pointing to Kanon having that kind of a relationship with Battler, (IIRC Kanon wasn't around when Battler was 6 years ago), so I don't really think it is Kanon...

UNLESS Kanon happens to be Asumu's Battler, which would totally change everything around. So I will assume this position and address all of the Episodes in that fashion.

But anyway, I guess I will run through the individual Episodes of who I think the culprits could have been.

EP1: Kanon the main culprit. Nanjo, and possibly Kumasawa and Genji as accomplices. Kanon basically responsible for all of the deaths in this episode. This would work if Nanjo had faked Kanon's death, with Genji and/or Kumasawa being in good positions as accomplices to Eva/Hideyoshi's death. I still have no idea about the status of the cousins at the end, though.

EP2: Kanon and Rosa the main culprits. Maria as accomplice to Rosa. Nanjo, Kumasawa, Genji, Shannon all as potential accomplices to Kanon. Kanon somehow coerces Rosa into helping him execute the first twilight via the envelope that "Beatrice" passes to Rosa. Things don't go as planned because Rosa attempts to kill Kanon later on while he is with Jessica. However, Kanon manages to escape either by disguising himself as Jessica's corpse (he is feminine enough... but in this case Nanjo would have to be an accomplice again because of the autopsy) or else simply escaping. Red text that Kanon died in the same room as Jessica can be avoided if we assume it means that Kanon died in the room of his wounds after killing Nanjo and Kumasawa (which however doesn't account for Battler and Genji's status afterwards), or that Kanon's personality was killed, causing a second personality to surface. Kanon kills Kumasawa and Nanjo, later kills George, Shannon, and Gouda. No idea how to account for Battler and Genji, though.

Oh, and Rosa and Maria scene with the goats at the end is a metaphor for Rosa shooting and then stabbing Maria to death, cause Rosa is freaking crazy.

EP3: Kanon and Eva, although Rudolf and Kyrie are also highly suspect here. Hideyoshi as accomplice to Eva, Nanjo as accomplice to Kanon (Kumasawa dies too early on). Kanon responsible for the first twilight, (meaning Nanjo covers up Kanon's death again), Eva kills Rosa and Maria, Kanon or Rudolf+Kyrie kills Hideyoshi, Kanon kills Rudolf+Kyrie, Kanon kills Krauss and Natsuhi, Kanon kills George, Kanon kills Nanjo, Eva kills Battler, Kanon escapes with Jessica, Eva escapes by herself. Phew.

EP4: Kanon basically kills off everyone, although something seems extremely fishy about this Episode because none of the stake deaths were performed properly. Almost everyone who was alive could be taken to be an unwilling accomplice due to the nature of the inheritance game that was executed. Also, for some reason I find the grouping of Kyrie, Krauss, Nanjo, Shannon and Kanon together highly suspicious. I think it's possible that Kyrie was able to fight back at the last minute, forcing Kanon into a position such that the stakes weren't able to be placed properly. Or something like that.

The red text can be avoided here if we assume "Kanon died" implied that Kanon's personality/identity was killed, but not necessarily his body. Same as EP2.

Also, the Ushiroymiya gold is sent to Ange, Kumasawa's son, and Nanjo's son as compensation for the murders... although I don't really know how the explain the "why" for this. I figured perhaps if Kumasawa and Nanjo had been meant to act as accomplices, then this would be repayment to their children, but then I'd have to add Rudolf or Kyrie to the accomplice list also... also, I have to take into account that this is the EP3 world, so this might not even have happened in the other worlds- which would possibly exempt Kumasawa as an accomplice. Geh, this doesn't make sense.

EP5: This episode is completely different because of the introduction of Natsuhi's 19 year old missing son. I'm going to go with meta-Battler on this one and accuse game-piece Battler as the true culprit, with Battler actually being replaced by the son in question.

One problem I have is Battler witnessing Beatrice in person in Episodes 1+4 (assuming Battler's POV is reliable as the detective; this is my basis for why Kanon's deaths are suspicious), but I suppose if we assume that Kanon crossdresses then it would work... But then for some reason this reminds me oh too strongly of a Hitchcock film...

With regards to motive and the whole six years thing, I think I will relegate that this:

edit4:

So, I said earlier that this wouldn't really make much sense if Kanon weren't somehow related to Battler from 6 years ago... first because Battler has the distinction of being the only person to survive all Episodes (except for when Eva kills him in EP3), and EP5 emphasizes that the true culprit is targeting Battler on purpose by forcing him to witness all of the murders. It also emphasizes that the culprit doesn't enjoy performing these killings.

So there are two main solutions I can think of.

1. Kanon is the "real" Ushiromiya Battler. In EP4 we find out that meta-Battler's real mom is not Asumu from the red text. However, other red text stated later on proves that Battler is still Kinzo's grandson and Ange's sister, so he is likely Rudolf and Kyrie's child (which means Kyrie lied about her miscarriage), OR Rudolf had relations with another woman besides Asumu and Kyrie at the same time, which would reeeeally make him a philanderer. We know that Asumu was still pregnant at the same time Kyrie was, so either Asumu was the real person with the miscarriage or her child is still alive - and it's probably the latter because Beatrice states in red that "Ushiromiya Battler is Ushiromiya Asumu's son." If Kanon is the real Battler, this would give him the proper motivation for basically... everything. The main problem would be his age, though, because he's two years younger than Battler, unless his age refers to the time he took on the name Kanon.

2. Kanon is possessed by/has a second personality named Beatrice. Kanon's death = Beatrice killing his personality and taking over his body. Or in the case of EP2, Rosa shooting him. I can visualize this one happening pretty well, but it does seem a little out there...

In this case, however, it would explain how Maria was able to communicate with "Beatrice" (I'm thinking of the scene in EP2 where Kanon meets Maria in the rose garden and Maria asks him, "Why not learn magic together with Beatrice?... ihihihihihi" or something like that, and Kanon starts seeing Beatrice's face in his mind) and why Nanjo, Kumasawa, and perhaps Genji would follow him - under the pretense that he is the real Beatrice.

However, I have no idea how to explain how this would connect with the events of 6 years ago, especially since Kanon physically wasn't at Rokkenjima 6 years ago.

If this theory doesn't work out (which is probably won't... but it was fun trying to come up with a solution), I think Kyrie would be the next most suspicious choice. However, I don't know how the explain the cases where Kyrie's corpse is confirmed before everyone else dies (in red, moreover), considering she has a first twilight death in the first two arcs. Kanon's the only person I can think of who could get away with that.

There's probably a lot more going on than what I've come up with, though.

edit5:

I overlooked the fact that Nanjo's diagnosis was confirmed in red for EP3, so that explanation is kinda thrown out the window. Hm. I'm still as confused as ever.

edit 6.5->5.5:

Then again, this could be avoided if

1. Kanon's personality died as this theory assumes for EP2+4, and Nanjo's diagnosis was performed on another body that was taken to be Kanon's. However, Knox commandment 10 rules out the possibility of twins or doubles, so he might really be dead for this arc... but I don't know what to make of Jessica's final scene then.

It strikes me that Jessica could also be suspicious in these circumstances as well, at least as far as EP1 was concerned, as she was the only person aside from Nanjo who was with Kanon until the moment he supposedly died. She definitely died in EP2+4, though (which happen to be the arcs where Kanon's body is missing... wait what.).

...

I had this theory in mind that the Jessica we see is actually a fake Jessica, and that the real Jessica died prior to the start of the game, whose corpse is finally revealed in arcs 2+4. This would allow fake Jessica to masquerade as Beatrice... however, there's the problem that EP1 Battler witnesses both Beatrice and Jessica at the same time, and that Jessica is supposed to be dead in EP4 when Battler witnesses Beatrice then. In either case, this still violates Knox commandment 10... ugh.

That and EP5 doesn't seem to add anything to this at all. Jessica dies and Kanon doesn't even seem to respond in the slightest... but then there's word going around that the people who died in EP5 weren't dead at the time everyone thought they were. CONFUSED.

edit6:

Random thought/possibility: Asumu is the true culprit? I don't know if she counts as someone introduced earlier in the story (Knox commandment 1) but if she does then she's definitely a possibility. Although I have no idea how she'd be able to fool the rest of the family with her death, and I don't know who she'd be replacing among the 17 present at Rokkenjima.

...

KUMASAWA?

edit8:

It actually seems rather likely that there are two major opposing factions at work here...:

F1:
Kanon
Nanjo
Kumasawa

Gohda
Genji
Shannon (these last three are more like maybes, or are otherwise less culpable than the first three.)

F2:
Kyrie
Rudolf
maybe Krauss

Going by Episode...:

EP1: F1 is basically responsible for the entire thing, because F2's members are killed off in the first twilight, probably by F1.
EP2: F1 also, except this time Rosa (and maybe Maria) is involved. somewhere along the line Kanon seems to betray everyone, or Rosa betrays Kanon --> Kanon betrays everyone else. And Genji is still unaccounted for.
EP3: F2, Eva, and Nanjo going back and forth, as F1 is killed off in the first twilight, probably by F2. Unless one of the first twilight deaths was a cover-up, but the only person I could see this mattering for is Kanon following my earlier Kanon is the true culprit theory.
EP4: Both F1 and F2 have a standoff resulting in a lot of random deaths...

It would seem to be in both parties' interests that Battler survives till the end. I can't fathom if there is some overarching reason that would satisfy both for that though. Beatrice implies that there is.

I'm really overdoing myself with this theorizing. -_-